Warner Bros and MRC’s Wuthering Heights kicked off its theatrical run with a solid $3 million from Thursday previews across 3,000 locations, setting the stage for what could be a massive Valentine’s Day weekend.
But here’s where things get interesting.
Distribution sources are anticipating a significant surge in moviegoing on Saturday—Valentine’s Day itself—with foot traffic naturally shifting from Thursday night to the romantic holiday and extending through Monday’s Presidents Day holiday.
Industry insiders are eyeing a four-day haul between $40 million and $50 million in North America, with presales already hitting $14 million.
The Valentine’s Day Box Office Sweet Spot
Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday creates a rare and powerful box office phenomenon.
The last time this celestial alignment occurred was 11 years ago, when Fifty Shades of Grey dominated with a staggering $93 million opening over four days. Kingsman: Secret Service captured second place with $41 million that same weekend.
Oscar winner Emerald Fennell’s adaptation of Emily Brontë’s classic novel currently holds a 65% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. While that’s respectable, it’s worth noting that It Ends With Us—which earned $7 million in previews and opened to $50 million—scored only 55% with critics but resonated strongly with audiences at 87%.
Before anyone rushes to compare Wuthering Heights directly to It Ends With Us, distribution sources urge caution. It Ends With Us was a summer release with entirely different competitive dynamics and audience availability.
Warner Bros’ Strategic Win
Warner Bros secured rights to the Jacob Elordi and Margot Robbie feature for $80 million, significantly undercutting Netflix’s $150 million offer.
That strategic acquisition now positions the studio for what could be a highly profitable theatrical run, especially considering romantic dramas have proven remarkably resilient at the box office when released around Valentine’s Day.
Sony Animation’s GOAT Enters The Race
Sony Pictures Animation’s GOAT collected $1 million in Thursday previews starting at 2 p.m. from 3,030 locations.
Sony officially projects a $20 million four-day opening, but industry observers believe the Stephen Curry production could climb higher due to the notable absence of family-friendly content in the current marketplace.
Early audience metrics paint an encouraging picture:
- Kids under 12: 5-star PostTrak rating
- Parents: 4.5-star rating
- General audiences: 4.5-star rating
- Critics: 80% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes
With production costs between $80 million and $90 million before prints and advertising, GOAT needs strong word-of-mouth to achieve profitability. Those stellar audience scores suggest families will be recommending it throughout the extended weekend.
Amazon MGM’s Crime 101 Takes A Measured Approach
Amazon MGM Studios’ Crime 101 generated $1 million from overall previews—not exclusively Thursday night—as it targets a $15 million four-day debut.
Director Bart Layton assembled an impressive ensemble including Chris Hemsworth, Halle Berry, Mark Ruffalo, and Barry Keoghan for this noir thriller, which carries an 86% certified fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Production costs hit $90 million before marketing expenses. Amazon MGM follows a clear theatrical strategy: only release films theatrically if they can recoup marketing costs. That’s become their operational rule of thumb.
Comparable releases provide context for expectations:
- Den of Thieves: Pantera: $1.35 million previews, $15 million opening
- A Working Man: $1.1 million previews, $15.5 million opening
- The Beekeeper: $2.4 million previews, $16.5 million three-day opening
Crime 101 fits comfortably within this performance range based on preview numbers.
Weekend Battle Lines Are Drawn
Wuthering Heights enters the weekend with momentum, strong presales, and perfect counterprogramming positioning for couples seeking romantic fare on Valentine’s Day.
GOAT could overperform projections if families flock to theaters looking for quality animated entertainment—something currently in short supply. Children’s enthusiastic response combined with parental approval creates ideal conditions for repeat viewings and sustained box office legs.
Crime 101 targets adult audiences seeking sophisticated thriller entertainment, occupying its own distinct lane away from both romantic drama and family animation.
Audience scores remain unreported for all three films, meaning word-of-mouth will play a crucial role as the four-day weekend unfolds. Saturday’s Valentine’s Day surge will likely determine which film emerges victorious, with Monday’s Presidents Day holiday offering additional revenue opportunities.
Distribution sources emphasize that comparing Thursday preview numbers without accounting for release timing, competitive landscape, and audience availability creates misleading expectations. Wuthering Heights benefits from Valentine’s Day falling on Saturday—a rare occurrence that historically produces outsized romantic drama performance.
Studios are banking on audiences showing up in force throughout this extended holiday weekend, with each film strategically positioned to capture different demographic segments across four profitable days.