Hollywood’s largest voting body is about to weigh in on this year’s best performances.
With nominations dropping January 7, 2026, the newly rebranded Actor Awards — formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards — remain one of the most crucial stops on the road to Oscar glory.
Over 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers can vote, making their choices a reflection of what resonates with working actors themselves.
History shows their picks matter: since 2009, a staggering 76% of SAG ensemble nominees have gone on to secure best picture nominations at the Academy Awards.
Why SAG Predictions Matter for Oscar Season
The ensemble category serves as Hollywood’s most reliable Oscar crystal ball. Since its introduction in 1995, only four films have won best picture without earning a SAG ensemble nomination: “Braveheart,” “The Shape of Water,” “Green Book,” and “Nomadland.”
Individual acting categories show equally impressive predictive power. SAG film acting nominees overlap with Academy Award nominations at an 80% match rate on average, with the strongest alignment hitting 19 of 20 slots in 2009.
“One Battle After Another” Could Make SAG History
Paul Thomas Anderson’s action epic enters awards season as the ensemble frontrunner, boasting a star-studded lineup led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn.
The Warner Bros. film is projected to earn seven nominations — potentially making it the most nominated movie in SAG history. Currently, six films share that record with five nominations each, including recent contenders “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Wicked.”
If Regina Hall breaks through in supporting actress alongside Teyana Taylor, Anderson’s film could push that total even higher.
Can Timothée Chalamet Win Back-to-Back?
Fresh off his best actor win for “A Complete Unknown,” Chalamet returns to the race with “Marty Supreme,” playing table tennis prodigy Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie’s latest.
But history isn’t on his side. No film actor has ever won consecutive SAG Awards.
That precedent opens opportunities for Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan, and Ethan Hawke — all expected nominees who could capitalize on voters’ tendency toward fresh faces.
International Performances Face Uphill Battle
Despite critical acclaim, “The Secret Agent” star Wagner Moura faces a potential snub due to SAG’s historical reluctance to nominate non-English language performances.
Sandra Hüller’s omission for “Anatomy of a Fall” remains a recent reminder of this barrier. However, Norwegian family drama “Sentimental Value” could break through with multiple nominations for Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas.
Veterans and Newcomers Compete Across Categories
Glenn Close could earn her 11th individual SAG nomination for “Wake Up Dead Man,” while William H. Macy eyes recognition for “Train Dreams,” which is also predicted for cast ensemble.
The mix of established talent and fresh energy defines this year’s race across both film and television categories.
Television Categories Showcase Streaming Dominance
Streaming platforms are positioned to dominate drama series nominations, with Apple TV’s “Severance” and HBO Max’s “The White Lotus” leading alongside Netflix’s final “Stranger Things” season.
Comedy remains competitive between FX’s “The Bear” and HBO’s “Hacks,” while Apple TV could surprise with Seth Rogen’s “The Studio.”
Established favorites like Jean Smart, Jeremy Allen White, and Adam Scott face competition from relative newcomers including Glen Powell for “Chad Powers.”
Netflix Poised to Sweep Limited Series
The streaming giant could claim as many as eight of 10 nomination slots across male and female limited series categories.
Their Emmy-winning miniseries “Adolescence” leads the charge, showcasing Netflix’s continued investment in prestige limited programming that resonates with industry voters.
Key Dates for Awards Season
- Nominations announced: January 7, 2026
- Final voting period: January 14 through February 27 at noon Pacific
- 32nd Annual Actor Awards: March 1, 2026, streaming live on Netflix
This year’s eligibility window covers all performances released between January 1 and December 31, 2025, setting up what appears to be one of the most competitive fields in recent memory.
With ensemble recognition serving as Oscar’s most reliable predictor and individual categories showcasing both beloved veterans and exciting newcomers, the Actor Awards nominations will provide crucial momentum heading into the final stretch of awards season.