Oscar predictions season has reached fever pitch, and Entertainment Weekly’s awards experts just laid their cards on the table.
In the latest episode of The Awardist podcast, EW Senior Writer Joey Nolfi, Senior Editor Joyce Eng, and Editor-in-Chief Patrick Gomez joined forces to dissect who’s in, who’s out, and who’s barely hanging on in the top six Academy Award categories.
Their debate reveals surprising vulnerabilities for presumed locks, unexpected surges from dark horses, and one category so unpredictable it had them changing picks mid-conversation.
Here’s where they landed—and why their reasoning might just predict Oscar morning perfectly.
Supporting Actor: Rare Consensus
This category proved remarkably straightforward for the panel. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), and Paul Mescal (Hamnet) achieved unanimous agreement.
When awards prognosticators align this completely, it typically signals genuine industry consensus rather than groupthink.
Lead Actor: Final Two Slots Spark Debate
Three names generated immediate consensus: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Michael B. Jordan (Sinners).
But positions four and five sparked considerable back-and-forth.
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) gained momentum in late fall. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) claimed the Golden Globe for Drama. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) appeared across SAG’s Actor Awards, the Globes, and BAFTA’s longlist. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) remained in the conversation but never quite broke through.
After weighing momentum versus precursor wins, all four experts settled on Moura and Plemons for those coveted final nominations.
Supporting Actress: Total Chaos
This might be 2025’s most unpredictable category.
At various points, serious consideration went to Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), and Regina Hall (One Battle After Another).
Madigan captured Critics Choice Awards honors first, followed by Taylor’s Golden Globe win.
The panel reached consensus on three names: Taylor, Lilleaas, and Mosaku appear locked.
For the remaining two slots, predictions diverged dramatically. Joey, Patrick, and one other panelist believe Grande will score her second nomination. Joyce and another expert consider Madigan a lock. Joey and Joyce give their fifth slots to A’Zion.
Patrick, meanwhile, went rogue with Fanning and Hall.
Lead Actress: One Convincing Argument Changed Everything
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) leads the pack. If anyone can challenge her, it’s Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), who collected critics and film festival honors including Berlin’s Silver Bear, plus nominations at the Actor Awards and Critics Choice, capped by a Golden Globe win.
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) should slide in comfortably, though Joey considers Reinsve “severely vulnerable.”
That fifth slot proved genuinely perplexing.
Wicked: For Good star Cynthia Erivo once seemed inevitable—until momentum evaporated post-release. Amanda Seyfried‘s work in The Testament of Ann Lee surged alongside Kate Hudson in sleepy hit Song Sung Blue. Then there’s Chase Infiniti from One Battle After Another.
Joyce made a compelling case that reshaped everyone’s thinking:
This category is leaning way too highbrow and artsy. And there is a lane for the middlebrow, basic biopic people, and that’s Kate Hudson. People on film Twitter stick their nose up at Song Sung Blue. It’s like the Nyad of this year. And everyone got mad when Annette Bening got in two years ago. But I think she just had that lane all to herself of that voting demographic. And I think that voting demographic doesn’t have anything this year, but Song Song Blue and then with Chase, you know, she’s not really a lead in the film.
Voting System Mathematics
Joyce’s analysis went deeper, examining Oscar’s ranked preferential voting system:
It’s ranked as preferential. So, I don’t know how many number ones Chase is gonna pull. Whereas Jessie’s gonna have, like, 80 percent of the number ones anyway. So then it’s just gonna create this weird vacuum after her. So I think the people who love movies like Song Sung Blue, they’re gonna put Kate in number one. Rose Byrne is gonna have passion supporters. Number one. Emma Stone, same thing — her Meryl Streep era who just gets nominated for everything. Same thing with Renata. And then, I don’t know how many people put Chase at number one; she’s been hitting all these places, but if you remember, most of these places now have six spots except for SAG; she got into SAG. So she could be in sixth place at Critics Choice. BAFTA hasn’t announced yet; she could be in sixth place there. The way these other bodies work, you just need to appear on the ballot, like at SAG. It’s not ranked. They could be writing Chase Infiniti in the fifth slot, but she has the most appearances because everyone has seen One Battle, so that’s how she gets validated.
Joyce’s argument proved so persuasive that Joey, Patrick, and another panelist immediately switched their final pick to Kate Hudson.
Director: Two Slots Up For Grabs
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) will not only be nominated—he’ll win, according to unanimous agreement.
Joining him: Ryan Coogler (Sinners) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet).
The final two slots remain genuinely contested among Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident).
Joey predicts del Toro and Panahi. Joyce favors Safdie and Trier. Patrick splits the difference with del Toro and Trier. The fourth panelist, after wavering between Trier, del Toro, and Safdie, locked in Safdie and del Toro.
Best Picture: Eight Locks, Two Question Marks
Consensus emerged on eight of ten slots:
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Sentimental Value
- Bugonia
- Frankenstein
- The Secret Agent
For the final two nominations, debate centered on Train Dreams, F1, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Weapons, and It Was Just an Accident.
The full episode of The Awardist reveals their final choices, along with analysis and favorite moments from this year’s Golden Globes—offering essential listening for anyone tracking this year’s unpredictable Oscar race.