Awards season just got significantly more unpredictable.
The BAFTA nominations dropped after the Oscar announcements this year, flipping the typical awards calendar and creating fresh chaos in an already complicated race.
But there’s something else brewing beneath the surface that could fundamentally change how Oscar winners are decided—and it has nothing to do with campaigns or precursor wins.
For the first time ever, Academy voters must prove they’ve actually watched the films before casting their ballots.
The New Rule That Changes Everything
In a seismic shift for Oscar voting protocol, AMPAS now requires members to confirm they’ve watched all nominated films in a category before voting in that race.
The initiative combines digital tracking through the Academy Screening Room with member-reported viewings. Historically, watching every nominated title was recommended but not required.
Academy sources told Variety the reception from members has been overwhelmingly positive, with many requesting the change for years. BAFTA operates similarly but relies on an honor system where members simply check off films they’ve seen.
The implications? Oscar voters will actually have to do their homework—potentially leveling the playing field for underdog performances and lesser-known films.
“One Battle After Another” Dominates BAFTA
Paul Thomas Anderson’s revolutionary dramedy led the charge with a commanding 14 nominations, falling just two short of the all-time BAFTA record set by “Gandhi” in 1982.
The haul puts it in line with “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “The King’s Speech,” and “Atonement”—all of which went on to win best film. All five principal actors received nominations, including Chase Infiniti, who surprisingly missed an Oscar nomination for best actress.
However, BAFTA historically doesn’t “over-reward” movies the way the Oscars do. While the Oscars have handed out 11 statuettes to “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic,” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” remains the most BAFTA-awarded film ever with just nine wins.
This may present a “spread the wealth” moment at the February 22 ceremony.
The “Sinners” Surprise
Nabbing 13 significant nominations—the most ever for a film helmed by a Black director—”Sinners” made a powerful statement to the international community.
While nominations for Michael B. Jordan and Wunmi Mosaku were expected, Delroy Lindo’s omission landed hardest. Despite earning an Oscar nomination for best supporting actor and appearing on BAFTA’s longlist, Lindo was left out of the final lineup.
He now joins Andrea Riseborough for “To Leslie” and Marina de Tavira for “Roma” as recent performers to score Oscar bids without recognition from Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or SAG.
Can Lindo Still Win?
That depends entirely on who wins SAG and BAFTA awards in the coming weeks.
What once looked like a clear path for Stellan Skarsgård unraveled when he was surprisingly left off the SAG Actor Awards nominations for “Sentimental Value.” The Critics Choice Award went to Jacob Elordi for “Frankenstein,” while the Golden Globe went to Skarsgård—fracturing the race across precursors.
All eyes will be on SAG/AFTRA’s Actor Awards on March 1, the last televised awards show before final Oscar voting opens. Notably, neither Skarsgård nor Lindo received SAG nominations.
If Benicio Del Toro for “One Battle After Another” triumphs, that would complicate things further and set the stage for an unpredictable Oscar night. In that scenario, BAFTA could ultimately become the most influential X factor.
Historic Context for Lindo’s Path
Since SAG began giving out prizes in 1995, only three performers have won acting Oscars without receiving a SAG nomination:
- Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock”
- Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk”
- Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained”
Harden is the only one to not receive a single televised precursor—the same situation as Lindo. For the 73-year-old performer to prevail, he would need to join that exclusive group.
“Marty Supreme” and the Youth Factor
With 11 nominations, “Marty Supreme” represents a critical opportunity for Timothée Chalamet to prove himself as the definitive frontrunner in the best actor race.
At BAFTA, age carries less weight than it does with the Academy. This is the same voting body that awarded best actor to Jamie Bell, then just 14, for “Billy Elliot”—triumphing over Oscar nominees Tom Hanks for “Cast Away,” Geoffrey Rush for “Quills,” and eventual winner Russell Crowe for “Gladiator.”
European Flavor Could Boost “Sentimental Value”
Historically, BAFTA has shown an affection toward European storytelling, which bodes well for “Sentimental Value.”
The film could mirror a similar trajectory of “The Banshees of Inisherin,” emerging as a multi-award player with potential wins in original screenplay, international feature, and possibly acting trophies for both Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas—both of whom were notably snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild.
How the New Viewing Requirement Could Change Outcomes
If an AMPAS member watches only the 10 best picture-nominated movies, it opens nine of the 24 categories to them—best picture, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, casting, production design, cinematography, film editing, and original score.
If members prioritize four more from non-best picture films—”Blue Moon” with Ethan Hawke, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” with Rose Byrne, “Song Sung Blue” with Kate Hudson, and “Weapons” with Amy Madigan—they gain voting access to the three remaining acting categories.
Being the sole piece of recognition for your movie could put you at a significant disadvantage—or prove incredibly favorable. When voters take time to watch a film like “Weapons,” they’ll see how brilliant Madigan’s work is and may look past her surprising BAFTA snub.
Categories With Sole Representation
The makeup and hairstyling category has the most sole representation among its nominees—”Kokuho,” “The Smashing Machine,” and “The Ugly Stepsister.”
In theory, the ultimate winner could be decided by the branch itself, making the makeup guild’s award the most vital clue this season. Other categories, such as visual effects and original song, each have two lone nominees.
Could this finally help 17-time nominee Diane Warren take home her first statuette?
The Unpredictable Road Ahead
This could also affect a song like “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters,” which has a second nomination in animated feature—though animation remains a medium often underappreciated by the industry.
Will we have sweepers like last year’s “Anora,” which won five of its six nominations? Or does this new requirement lend itself to more surprising winners at future ceremonies?
The best way to predict this season’s outcome may not be about statistics alone.
It will be about answering one fundamental question: How does an industry voter feel about a movie or performance when they’re actually watching it?
That’s a good outcome in itself—and one that could restore credibility to awards that have often been criticized for going unwatched by their own voters.