Oscar nomination morning arrives Thursday at 5:30 a.m. PT, and one of Hollywood’s most respected awards analysts has shared his predictions for what could be a record-breaking year.
Scott Feinberg, a veteran Oscar watcher stationed at the Academy’s Beverly Hills headquarters for the announcement, expects unprecedented achievements across multiple categories.
With Academy membership swelling to 11,000 voters—25 percent residing outside the United States—predicting nominations has become more challenging than ever before.
But Feinberg’s analysis, drawn from extensive screenings, voter conversations, and statistical research, points to several potential history-making moments.
Sinners Could Shatter Long-Standing Record
The top prediction? Sinners could receive 15 nominations, breaking the current record of 14 held by three films across seven decades.
That prestigious 14-nomination club currently includes 1950’s All About Eve, 1997’s Titanic, and 2016’s La La Land. If Feinberg’s prediction proves accurate, Sinners would stand alone at the top.
One Battle After Another Eyes Acting Record
Following closely behind, One Battle After Another could secure 12 nominations total, including a record-tying five acting nominations from a single film.
Such recognition across performance categories remains exceptionally rare in Oscar history.
Four Films Projected For Double-Digit Nominations
Rounding out potential double-digit nominees, both Frankenstein and Hamnet are expected to receive 11 nominations each.
Only once before—six years ago—have four films simultaneously broken into double digits during a single Oscar season.
Warner Bros. Poised To Dominate Studio Race
Despite ongoing corporate battles between Netflix and Paramount, Warner Bros. appears positioned to lead all studios with an anticipated 32 nominations.
That total would come from five films:
- Sinners
- One Battle After Another
- F1
- Weapons
- Superman
If achieved, this would mark the highest nomination count for any single company since Netflix earned 35 nominations five years ago.
Streaming And Independent Studios Battle For Second
Behind Warner Bros., the studio race tightens considerably.
Netflix could claim 19 nominations across Frankenstein, Train Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, The Perfect Neighbor, and several short films.
Independent powerhouse Neon follows with a projected 17 nominations spread across Sentimental Value, Sirat, The Secret Agent, and It Was Just an Accident.
Focus Features rounds out the top four with an expected 15 nominations between Hamnet and Bugonia.
International Films Expected To Make Unprecedented Impact
Perhaps the most significant trend Feinberg anticipates: a strong showing for non-English-language films that could surpass previous years.
With 25 percent of Academy voters now residing outside the United States, international members show no hesitation embracing subtitled content.
Meanwhile, American voters increasingly demonstrate openness to foreign-language cinema beyond previous generations.
Best Picture Nominees May Create Strong “Coattail Effect”
Another projected trend could prove challenging for artists outside best picture contenders.
Younger Academy members—many managing busy schedules—often concentrate viewing on fewer films. This behavior creates what Feinberg describes as heavy “coattails” for best picture nominees.
Translation: films earning best picture nominations may dominate across technical and craft categories more than in previous years.
New Casting Category Expands Field
This year marks another milestone: the introduction of best casting as an Oscar category.
The addition brings total categories to 24, up from 23 last year, finally recognizing casting directors’ crucial contributions to filmmaking.
Surprises And Heartbreak Inevitable
Despite extensive analysis and insider conversations, Feinberg acknowledges the unpredictable nature of Oscar nominations.
Surprise inclusions and devastating omissions remain inevitable, creating both excitement and disappointment across Hollywood.
Expanded and diversified Academy membership makes prediction accuracy more difficult—but also potentially creates opportunities for unconventional choices and breakthrough recognition.
Thursday morning’s announcement will reveal whether these predictions hit the mark or whether voters deliver unexpected curveballs that reshape Oscar season narratives heading toward the March ceremony.