A documentary about First Lady Melania Trump is facing a dramatic box office drop during Super Bowl weekend, projected to earn just $2.4 million after a surprisingly strong debut.
The film could tumble to tenth place, though some industry insiders believe it might land slightly higher at ninth.
But Amazon MGM Studios isn’t backing down—they’re calling the theatrical run a strategic victory that sets up the documentary’s eventual streaming release on Prime Video.
And the numbers tell a complicated story of Hollywood’s evolving distribution landscape.
Record-Breaking Launch Meets Steep Decline
Directed by Brett Ratner, Melania opened to an impressive $7.2 million last weekend—the biggest launch for a documentary in a decade, excluding concert films and Disney nature documentaries.
Through Friday, the film’s domestic total reached $11.8 million after earning $865,000 and landing in ninth place for the day. Filmmakers were so encouraged by opening weekend results that they expanded into 200 additional theaters heading into Super Bowl weekend.
But Super Bowl weekend traditionally represents one of the slowest periods at the box office, and Melania isn’t immune to the slowdown.
Amazon Defends Its “Wholistic” Strategy
Amazon MGM distribution chief Kevin Wilson issued a statement Saturday defending the theatrical approach as part of a broader distribution plan.
Melania’s strong theatrical performance is a critical first moment that validates our wholistic distribution strategy, building awareness, engagement and provides momentum ahead of the film’s eventual debut on Prime Video.
Wilson emphasized that theatrical and streaming releases create “two distinct value creating moments” that amplify overall impact. Exit polling data reportedly shows strong intent among viewers to rewatch on Prime Video and meaningful interest in an upcoming docuseries.
The theatrical marketing campaign creates a “halo effect” that drives increased awareness and viewership once films launch on streaming platforms, according to Wilson’s statement.
The Most Expensive Documentary Ever Made?
Melania chronicles the 20 days before Donald Trump’s second inauguration in 2025, offering behind-the-scenes access to the First Lady’s preparation.
The film has been billed as potentially the most expensive documentary ever produced, though actual budget details remain murky. Amazon MGM paid $40 million in January 2025 for worldwide theatrical and streaming rights, plus material for a docuseries.
Reports indicate Melania Trump personally received $28 million from the deal, while director Brett Ratner also took a substantial fee. Marc Beckman, the First Lady’s longtime manager and producing partner, played a pivotal role in packaging the project.
Amazon MGM spent an additional $35 million on global marketing, with the domestic campaign receiving the lion’s share. International marketing likely cost between $10 million and $15 million, though the studio hasn’t reported any overseas grosses—suggesting limited international performance across the 20-plus countries where it’s playing.
Team Melania Insisted on Theatrical Release
Sources indicate the First Lady’s team demanded a proper, exclusive theatrical component as part of any distribution deal.
Other bidders showed interest only in streaming rights. Disney offered between $14 million and $15 million for streaming alone but ultimately lost out to Amazon’s more comprehensive package.
Critics Versus Audiences: An Unprecedented Gap
The documentary currently holds an eight percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes—one of the lowest ratings for any major theatrical release.
Meanwhile, the audience score stands at 99 percent, creating what may be the biggest gap between critics and viewers in Rotten Tomatoes history. The disparity sparked numerous articles suggesting bot manipulation of audience reviews.
Rotten Tomatoes felt compelled to issue a rare public statement addressing the controversy:
There has been NO manipulation on the audience reviews for the Melania documentary. Reviews displayed on the Popcornmeter are VERIFIED reviews, meaning it has been verified that users have bought a ticket to the film through Fandango.
Box office analysts point out that fan-event movies typically generate higher-than-usual audience scores, which may partially explain the dramatic difference.
Quick Streaming Release on the Horizon
Amazon MGM hasn’t announced when Melania will debut on Prime Video, but insiders confirm it won’t arrive as early as next weekend.
However, a relatively quick transition seems likely. Amazon benefits from essentially getting two marketing campaigns for the price of one—theatrical buzz followed by streaming promotion.
Movies can continue performing in theaters even after streaming debuts, provided theater operators don’t need those screens for titles with greater box office potential.
Super Bowl Weekend Chaos at the Box Office
Super Bowl weekend traditionally ranks among the weakest periods for theatrical releases, with major studios typically avoiding new openings.
This year proved no exception, with an eclectic mix of independent films flooding multiplexes, including multiple horror titles and Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience, a K-pop concert film from Bleecker Street and Crosswalk.
The dominATE Experience topped Friday’s chart with $3 million, but Disney and 20th Century’s Send Help was expected to secure a repeat weekend win with $8 million to $10 million after earning $2.8 million Friday.
Competition remained fierce, with many top 10 titles in such close races that final weekend rankings remained uncertain heading into Sunday.
What This Means for Documentary Distribution
Melania represents a bold experiment in documentary distribution—combining traditional theatrical release with streaming ambitions and massive marketing spend.
Whether Amazon’s “wholistic” approach proves financially successful remains to be seen, but the studio clearly views theatrical release as valuable brand-building rather than purely a revenue generator.
As streaming platforms increasingly invest in theatrical releases, Melania offers a high-profile test case for hybrid distribution strategies in the documentary space.