The first lady’s documentary is facing a dramatic box office drop in its second weekend.
According to Friday returns, Melania is bracing for a steep decline, potentially landing in tenth place with just $2.4 million—though some industry insiders believe it could finish slightly higher at ninth.
Despite the concerning numbers, Amazon MGM Studios insists the theatrical run remains a strategic victory.
The studio’s distribution strategy hinges on building momentum before the documentary’s eventual Prime Video debut.
Amazon Defends Strategy Amid Box Office Tumble
Amazon MGM distribution chief Kevin Wilson released a statement Saturday addressing concerns about declining ticket sales.
Melania’s strong theatrical performance is a critical first moment that validates our wholistic distribution strategy, building awareness, engagement and provides momentum ahead of the film’s eventual debut on Prime Video.
Through Friday, Melania earned $11.8 million domestically after placing ninth for the day with $865,000. The film opened to $7.2 million last weekend—the biggest documentary launch in a decade, excluding concert films and Disney nature documentaries.
Optimism following opening weekend prompted filmmakers and Amazon MGM to add 200 theaters heading into Super Bowl weekend. That enthusiasm now appears premature given Friday’s underwhelming returns.
Record-Breaking Deal Behind First Lady’s Film
Amazon MGM secured global rights to Melania in January 2025 for $40 million, beating out competing studios in what sources describe as intense bidding.
Team Melania insisted on a proper, exclusive theatrical release before streaming. Disney offered only $14 million to $15 million for streaming rights alone.
Budget breakdown reveals staggering investment:
- $40 million for theatrical and streaming rights
- $35 million for global marketing campaign
- First lady Melania Trump reportedly pocketed $28 million
- Director Brett Ratner received undisclosed fee
Marc Beckman, the first lady’s longtime manager and producing partner, played a pivotal role in marketing Melania. Though billed as potentially the most expensive documentary ever made, actual production costs remain unknown since Amazon only paid for licensing.
International Box Office Raises Red Flags
Melania opened in over 20 countries internationally, yet Amazon MGM hasn’t reported any overseas grosses—a telling sign that foreign markets aren’t responding favorably.
Marketing spend for international territories likely reached $10 million to $15 million, though domestic promotional efforts certainly commanded more resources. Without international revenue to offset mounting costs, Amazon’s investment appears increasingly precarious.
Streaming Debut Coming Soon
Wilson’s statement emphasized how theatrical and streaming create complementary value rather than competing interests.
Together, theatrical and streaming represent two distinct value creating moments that amplify the film’s overall impact. Audience response is already validating this approach, with exit data showing strong intent to rewatch on Prime Video and meaningful interest in the forthcoming docuseries.
While insiders insist Melania won’t debut on Prime Video as early as next weekend, a relatively quick streaming launch seems inevitable. Amazon benefits from essentially getting two marketing campaigns for the price of one.
Theater operators may not fight to keep Melania on screens if more promising titles need space. Films can still perform in theaters after streaming debuts—provided demand justifies holding screens.
Historic Rotten Tomatoes Split Sparks Bot Accusations
Critics have demolished Melania, with reviewers giving it just an eight percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. For much of last week, that score sat at six percent.
Meanwhile, audiences awarded Melania a 99 percent score—creating what may be the biggest critic-audience gap in Rotten Tomatoes history.
Speculation about bot manipulation grew so loud that Rotten Tomatoes issued an unprecedented public statement defending score authenticity.
There has been NO manipulation on the audience reviews for the Melania documentary. Reviews displayed on the Popcornmeter are VERIFIED reviews, meaning it has been verified that users have bought a ticket to the film through Fandango.
Box office analysts note that fan-event movies frequently generate higher-than-usual audience scores, suggesting passionate niche audiences rather than widespread manipulation.
Super Bowl Weekend Complicates Box Office Picture
Super Bowl weekend traditionally ranks among the slowest box office periods annually because Sunday’s game dominates cultural attention.
Major studios typically avoid opening films this weekend, explaining why an eclectic mix of indie releases flooded multiplexes. Horror titles and K-pop concert film Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience from Bleecker Street and Crosswalk led Friday’s chart with $3 million.
Disney and 20th Century’s acclaimed Send Help appears positioned for a repeat win after grossing $2.8 million Friday. Projections suggest $8 million to $10 million for the weekend.
Many titles in the top 10 were in such close competition Friday that final weekend rankings remained unclear.
Behind-The-Scenes Look at Inauguration
Melania chronicles 20 days before President Trump’s second inauguration in 2025, offering behind-the-scenes access to the first lady during a pivotal political moment.
Amazon MGM’s deal included material for a forthcoming docuseries, suggesting the streaming giant views Melania as franchise potential rather than standalone documentary. Whether audience interest sustains beyond theatrical curiosity remains questionable given steep second-weekend declines.
Wilson’s statement referenced exit data showing meaningful interest in the docuseries, though specific numbers weren’t disclosed. Amazon appears committed to leveraging theatrical marketing as a springboard for Prime Video content.
Final box office numbers will clarify whether Melania lands in ninth or tenth place, but either position represents a significant drop from last weekend’s promising debut. Complete weekend tallies arrive Sunday.