A documentary about First Lady Melania Trump hits theaters this weekend with massive expectations—and equally massive risks.
Brett Ratner’s Melania could become the biggest documentary opening in a decade if it reaches the $5 million mark predicted by tracking services.
But sluggish ticket sales and near-empty theater maps circulating on social media suggest Amazon MGM Studios might be facing a very public disappointment.
The stakes couldn’t be higher—not just for the studio that paid $40 million for distribution rights, but for Melania Trump herself as she launches her producing career.
The Numbers Game: What Success Looks Like
Melania opens in more than 1,500 theaters nationwide, making it one of the widest documentary releases ever. The film needs to surpass Angel Studios’ After Death, which earned exactly $5 million from 2,645 theaters in 2023, to claim the decade’s top documentary opening.
For context, Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 holds the record with a stunning $23.9 million opening from just 868 theaters back in 2004. It went on to become the highest-grossing documentary of all time domestically at $119.2 million.
Most documentaries, including many of Moore’s other films, opened with limited runs rather than wide releases. This makes Melania‘s theatrical strategy particularly bold—and risky.
Mixed Signals From Ticket Sales
Exhibitors aren’t sharing Amazon MGM’s optimism. Based on advance ticket sales, some predict the documentary could earn far less than $5 million—potentially landing in the $2 million to $4 million range.
Social media has become a real-time referendum on the film’s prospects, with users posting theater seating charts showing only scattered ticket purchases. It’s unprecedented scrutiny for a documentary opening.
However, the picture isn’t uniformly bleak. Ultra-conservative areas like El Plano, Texas, show nearly sold-out screenings. Friday showings at AMC Lincoln Square in New York City and AMC Century City in Los Angeles have also moved a decent number of tickets.
The bigger question: can Melania sustain audience interest over multiple weekends before it transitions to Prime Video?
An Unprecedented Presidential Documentary
Melania represents a first in American cinema—a film featuring and made by a sitting First Lady receiving a theatrical release. The documentary was shot during the 20 days leading up to the 2025 inauguration.
Step inside Melania Trump’s world as she orchestrates inauguration plans, navigates the complexities of the White House transition, and moves her family back to the Nation’s Capital. With exclusive footage capturing critical meetings, private conversations, and never-before-seen environments, Melania showcases Mrs. Trump’s return to one of the world’s most powerful roles.
Amazon MGM acquired rights to both the documentary and an accompanying docuseries for Prime Video. Paramount and Disney also bid for the project following Donald Trump’s reelection during what some called the glory days of the MAGA movement.
But much has changed. President Trump’s approval ratings have tumbled following controversial policies, and the documentary opens in the wake of an ICU nurse’s death during an ICE operation in Minnesota—creating an unexpectedly fraught political environment.
Melania Trump’s Producing Debut
Beyond box office numbers, this film marks Melania Trump’s entry into producing through her new company, Muse. She and fellow producer Marc Beckman, her longtime adviser and manager, have been driving forces throughout the marketing campaign.
The marketing push has relied heavily on Fox News to spread the word. While Amazon pitched simulcasting the premiere in 21 theaters nationwide, attendees for these screenings were hand-picked by Melania Trump’s team and aligned organizations.
A glitzy premiere took place January 29 at the newly renamed Trump-Kennedy Center, with President Donald Trump attending alongside his wife. He’s also been promoting the film on Truth Social.
The Marketing Blitz: $35 Million Campaign
Amazon MGM is spending approximately $35 million on marketing—$15 million domestically and another $10 million internationally. That’s feature-film money for a documentary.
Between December 22 and January 23, Amazon spent $3.5 million on national linear TV ads, according to iSpot. This figure doesn’t include expensive spots during NFL conference championship games or UFC fights.
The campaign achieved impressive reach:
- More than 461 million household impressions
- 37 percent reach via Fox News
- CBS (8.8 percent), Fox (7.2 percent), ABC (6.8 percent), and Hallmark (5.7 percent) rounded out top networks
- Fox News shows dominated program reach: The Five (7.6 percent), The Ingraham Angle (4.7 percent), America’s Newsroom (3.7 percent)
Amazon also bought prime spots during CBS’s NFL AFC Wild Card game and Fox’s divisional game. Additional marketing included an interview with Melania Trump on Fox News discussing the importance of theatrical release.
Recently, spots have appeared on CNN as well, broadening the campaign beyond conservative media. Trailer placement targets older females, playing before films like The Housemaid.
Special Theatrical Promotions
Amazon pulled out all the stops with theatrical enticements. Moviegoers receive commemorative tickets and special popcorn buckets celebrating the release.
Perhaps most notably, Melania Trump rang the New York Stock Exchange Opening Bell on January 28 to mark the film’s upcoming release—a live broadcast that generated significant media attention.
The film will also play internationally in locations including Mexico City, Tokyo, London, and parts of the Middle East, though Amazon hasn’t provided a complete country list.
Brett Ratner’s Comeback Attempt
Melania marks Brett Ratner’s first film since being canceled nearly a decade ago following accusations of sexual misconduct and harassment. Ratner has denied any wrongdoing.
His involvement adds another layer of controversy to an already politically charged release. Amazon MGM is not previewing the documentary for critics, an unusual move that typically signals concerns about potential negative reviews.
The White House Screening Controversy
Melania Trump and Ratner held a private black-tie screening at the White House’s East Room last weekend. The unadvertised event attracted approximately 70 VIP guests during a major snowstorm that hit much of the United States.
Notable attendees included:
- Queen Rania of Jordan
- Apple CEO Tim Cook
- Zoom CEO Eric Yuan
- AMD CEO Lisa Su
- NYSE CEO Lynn Martin
- Mike Tyson
- Tony Robbins
- Fashion designer Adam Lippes
- Photographer Ellen von Unwerth, who shot the film’s poster
The timing proved unfortunate. Minneapolis was erupting in violence over an ICE shooting, and many invitees faced public criticism for attending the screening during this crisis.
Box Office Competition: Rachel McAdams Takes The Crown
Ironically, the true First Lady of this weekend’s box office appears to be Rachel McAdams, not Melania Trump. McAdams’ thriller Send Help from 20th Century and Disney is tracking to top the chart with $14 million-plus.
Sam Raimi’s darkly comic horror-thriller stars McAdams and Dylan O’Brien as coworkers stranded on a desert island. It boasts a glowing 93 percent critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes and is expected to overperform—some cinema owners predict $16 million to $17 million.
Jason Statham’s action pic Shelter also enters theaters this weekend, hoping for a high single-digit domestic debut through Black Bear’s new distribution arm.
What’s Really At Stake
Opening any movie during today’s struggling box office environment requires courage—especially a documentary. But Melania carries extraordinary weight beyond typical opening weekend concerns.
If the documentary only clears $2 million to $4 million, headlines calling it a bomb become inevitable. Such an outcome could raise questions about the strength of Trump’s core support base at a time when his approval ratings are already declining.
For Melania Trump personally, disappointing numbers could undermine her credibility as she launches a producing career. Amazon MGM faces scrutiny over its $40 million investment in what was supposed to be history-making content.
The documentary represents an enormous gamble for all involved—studio executives, political advisers, and the First Lady herself. Whether that gamble pays off will become clear when final numbers arrive Monday morning.
Until then, theater owners, political observers, and entertainment industry insiders watch closely as this unprecedented experiment in presidential documentary filmmaking unfolds in real time.