Awards season reaches its crescendo Thursday morning when Oscar nominations drop, and this year’s lineup could signal a seismic shift in how Hollywood honors global cinema.
Will voters continue embracing international films, or retreat to familiar American territory?
The precursors have painted two wildly different pictures—and the Academy’s choice could reshape the future of the awards.
Industry insiders are watching closely as films from Norway, Brazil, Spain, and Iran vie for slots traditionally reserved for English-language prestige dramas.
The International Invasion Is Already Underway
December’s Golden Globes showcased what a globally-minded ceremony looks like: five of twelve Best Picture nominees spoke foreign languages, with studio powerhouse Neon leading the charge with four international contenders.
American guilds told a different story. SAG completely ignored every international film in contention, while the PGA nominated just one—Norway’s Sentimental Value.
The Academy’s recent membership expansion has fundamentally altered who votes on these awards. Industry analyst Walt Hickey recently suggested imagining the median Oscar voter as an Austrian sound mixer rather than a Hollywood producer, a shift that could revolutionize nomination patterns.
Best Picture: Welcome to Thunderdome
Five films dominate the conversation: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, and Sinners. All earned nominations from SAG, DGA, and PGA—the industry’s holy trinity of precursors.
But predicting which films fill out the remaining spots? That’s where things get interesting.
Sentimental Value swept last weekend’s European Film Awards, whose membership increasingly overlaps with Academy voters. Despite American guild snubs, the Norwegian drama appears to have secured enough international support to breakthrough.
Brazil Enters the Arena
Brazil’s The Secret Agent has momentum on its side, winning foreign-language prizes from Critics Choice and Golden Globes while generating Oscar buzz for Wagner Moura’s transformative performance.
Both Neon films showcase anti-authoritarian resistance—a theme that resonates deeply with Academy voters right now. Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or-winning It Was Just an Accident explores similar territory but with darker undertones, which may explain why it’s struggled despite critical acclaim.
Art-house contenders Bugonia and Train Dreams both secured PGA nominations, indicating broad industry support for smaller independent films.
The Spanish Wildcard Nobody Saw Coming
Spain’s raver epic Sirāt represents this year’s biggest gamble. The film collected every European Film Award that Sentimental Value didn’t win, then shocked observers by dominating Oscar shortlists despite being Neon’s fourth priority.
Oliver Laxe’s film combines European credibility with blockbuster craftsmanship—exactly what that hypothetical Austrian sound mixer might champion.
Expected Best Picture nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sirāt, and Train Dreams.
Best Director: Auteurs Take Center Stage
Paul Thomas Anderson appears locked for One Battle After Another, while Ryan Coogler and Chloé Zhao battle for silver and bronze with Sinners and Hamnet respectively.
Josh Safdie should receive his “welcome to the club” nomination for elevating his grimy aesthetic to grand-scale filmmaking in Marty Supreme. Guillermo del Toro frequently appears at precursors for Frankenstein, but lukewarm reception for the actual film may prevent him from crossing the finish line.
Joachim Trier consolidated European support after consistently defeating Panahi at the European Film Awards. His nomination would complete a directing lineup that demands at least one Scandinavian auteur.
If The Secret Agent proves stronger than expected, Kleber Mendonça Filho could steal that fifth slot.
Acting Categories Blend Stars and Surprises
Best Actor pits Timothée Chalamet against his idol Leonardo DiCaprio—twink versus twunk in the year’s most anticipated showdown. Ethan Hawke, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Moura round out a category where traditional Hollywood heavyweights unexpectedly dropped off early.
Jessie Buckley wrapped Best Actress sometime around Labor Day with her raw portrayal of grieving motherhood in Hamnet. The real battle involves Rose Byrne, Emma Stone, Renate Reinsve, and a fascinating face-off between newcomer Chase Infiniti and veteran Kate Hudson.
Supporting Actor features three senior performers who’ve each looked like front-runners at different points: Stellan Skarsgård, Sean Penn, and Benicio del Toro. Paul Mescal rides Buckley’s coattails while Jacob Elordi overcomes the Academy’s long-standing bias against hunks.
Supporting Actress: Survivors Emerge
Supporting Actress nominees absorbed competing bids from their own co-stars to become sole representatives. Teyana Taylor’s revolutionary-in-motion performance makes her the category front-runner after winning the Globe.
British actress Wunmi Mosaku fended off previous nominee Hailee Steinfeld, while Norwegian unknown Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas rode one perfect Oscar clip past Elle Fanning. Odessa A’zion usurped Gwyneth Paltrow’s comeback buzz in Marty Supreme, and Amy Madigan earned recognition that could have easily been overlooked.
Ariana Grande’s Glinda may become this year’s shocking omission as Wicked: For Good fades from contention.
Screenplay Categories Favor Cinephiles
Original Screenplay should welcome two international scripts despite WGA eligibility restrictions. The writers’ branch remains the Academy’s most cinephile-friendly segment, which bodes well for Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident regardless of its performance in other categories.
Adapted Screenplay feels less chaotic, with the trophy likely heading to either One Battle After Another as part of a Best Picture sweep or Hamnet as a runner-up prize.
Bugonia delivers exactly the quirky, heady script this branch loves, while Train Dreams offers literary stylings that resonate with writer-voters.
What Thursday Morning Reveals About Oscar’s Future
These nominations will answer whether recent Academy membership changes genuinely transformed voting patterns or merely represented temporary anomalies.
If Norwegian, Brazilian, Spanish, and Iranian films secure multiple nominations across major categories, expect international cinema to become permanent fixtures rather than occasional surprises at future ceremonies.
But if American guilds’ preferences prevail and voters retreat to familiar English-language territory, those membership expansions may prove less impactful than reformers hoped.
Thursday morning doesn’t just determine this year’s Oscar race—it defines the next decade of how Hollywood honors filmmaking worldwide.